Fourth quarter compresses a year of pressure into eight weeks. Everything that is slightly broken in October becomes very broken in December. This checklist is organized by when each decision needs to be made.
- Inventory decisions are made in Q3, not Q4
- Publish carrier cutoff dates before customers ask
- Packaging shortages cause more delays than labor
- Plan January returns capacity in November
August and September: commit capacity
Place peak inventory orders accounting for extended supplier and freight lead times, and confirm with your fulfillment partner in writing what capacity is reserved for you — storage space, labor and cutoff commitments.
This is also when to order packaging. Custom mailers, printed boxes and inserts have long lead times, and running out of branded packaging in December means shipping in plain boxes during your highest-visibility weeks.
- Place inventory orders with extended lead times
- Confirm reserved storage and labor capacity
- Order packaging and inserts with buffer
- Lock in carrier commitments for peak volume
October: test everything at volume
Run a load test if you can: push a high-volume day through the operation and watch where it slows. Verify that every integration handles surge volume without falling behind, and that inventory syncs keep pace.
Audit slotting against expected peak velocity rather than current velocity. The SKUs that will move fastest in December should be near pack stations in November.
November: publish your cutoffs
Carriers publish holiday delivery deadlines; translate them into your own order-by dates and put them on the site clearly. Ambiguity here generates support volume and disappointment in equal measure.
Also decide your escalation rules in advance: what happens when a SKU sells out mid-promotion, when a carrier misses a pickup, or when volume exceeds forecast by half. Decisions made calmly in November are better than decisions made at 9pm in December.
December and January: finish and recover
Monitor on-time dispatch daily rather than weekly, and communicate proactively when something slips — customers forgive delays they were told about far more readily than silent ones.
Then plan for returns. January return volume can run several times normal, and slow processing strands sellable inventory exactly when cash is tightest after peak inventory spend.